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Social Science & Medicine

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Social Science & Medicine's content profile, based on 15 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Neurobehavioral Profiles of Inhibitory-Control Stratify Vulnerability and Resilience under Childhood Poverty

Hu, B.; Yang, T.; Hu, Y.; Liu, M.; Tan, S.; Li, X.; Qin, S.

2026-04-27 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.18.26350994 medRxiv
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Objective: Childhood poverty is a high-risk context that involves diverse adversities, making it difficult to understand how poverty confers later psychopathology risk and why some children remain resilient despite growing up in poverty. To address this heterogeneity, we quantified adversity-linked vulnerability as adversity-psychopathology coupling and tested whether childhood poverty amplifies this coupling and whether multilevel inhibitory-control profiles stratify vulnerability and resilience within poverty-exposed youth. Methods: We analyzed 10,112 youth (48.4% female; mean age = 9.92 years) from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study, linking baseline cumulative early-life adversity (ELA) to later behavioral problems across 4 waves. In the stop-signal task fMRI subsample of 7,401 youth, semi-supervised clustering of inhibitory-control activation identified neurofunctional subtypes within poverty-exposed youth. We also tested temperamental inhibitory control as an additional moderator. Results: Childhood poverty amplified the association between cumulative ELA and behavioral problems at baseline ({Delta}{beta} = 0.088; P < .001) and across follow-up waves. Two neurofunctional subtypes were identified within poverty-exposed youth: subtype-1 showed greater vulnerability than higher-income peers ({Delta}{beta} = 0.149; P < .001), whereas subtype-2 showed attenuated vulnerability and did not differ from higher-income peers ({Delta}{beta} = 0.049; P = .135); this pattern persisted longitudinally. Among poverty-exposed youth in subtype-2 with high temperamental inhibitory control, the association between cumulative ELA and later behavioral problems was no longer significant. Conclusions: Childhood poverty strengthened the translation of adversity burden into later behavioral problems, but inhibitory-control profiles differentiated higher- and lower-risk pathways within poverty, highlighting inhibitory control as a candidate target for prevention.

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Neighborhood Deprivation Is Associated with Accelerated Epigenetic Aging Via Greater Individual Adversity

Koirala, A. S.; Shields, J. R.; Vijan, A. S.; Wemm, S.; Xu, K.; Ku, B. S.; Sinha, R.; Harvanek, Z. M.

2026-04-27 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.24.26351669 medRxiv
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Importance: Adverse neighborhood conditions can lead to poorer health outcomes, potentially through accelerated biological aging. However, whether these relationships are explained by individual- or neighborhood-level factors remains unclear. Objective: To examine the association between neighborhood deprivation, measured by the Area Deprivation Index (ADI), and epigenetic age acceleration and assess whether individual- and neighborhood-level characteristics mediate or modify these associations. Design: Cross-sectional study using data from a Yale Stress Center study between 2008 and 2012. Data analysis was conducted from July 2025 to January 2026. Setting: Community-based sample from the greater New Haven, CT area. Participants: A total of 370 healthy adults aged 18 to 50 years without major psychiatric, medical, or cognitive disorders who provided blood samples for DNA methylation analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Epigenetic age acceleration measured from DNA methylation using four second-generation epigenetic clocks, with associations assessed among aging, neighborhood deprivation, and individual- and neighborhood-level factors. Results: Data were analyzed from 370 participants (212 women [57.3%], 158 men [42.7%]; mean [SEM] age, 29.3 [0.46] years). Greater neighborhood deprivation was associated with greater lifetime adversity ({beta}=0.112, p<.001) and lower educational attainment ({beta}=-0.019, p=.012), and accelerated epigenetic aging as measured by GrimAge ({beta}=0.037, p<.001), PCGrimAge ({beta}=0.019, p<.001), and PCPhenoAge ({beta}=0.041, p<.001), but not PhenoAge (p=.23). In multivariable models accounting for individual factors, neighborhood deprivation remained associated with these three clocks. Lifetime adversity partially mediated the association between ADI and accelerated GrimAge (20.3% of total effect) and PCGrimAge (23.3%). Race moderated the direct association between ADI and epigenetic aging, with stronger associations between neighborhood deprivation and accelerated GrimAge ({beta}=0.061, p=.004) and PCPhenoAge ({beta}=0.057, p=.02) observed among Black participants compared to White. Conclusions: Greater neighborhood deprivation was associated with accelerated epigenetic aging across multiple second-generation clocks, with lifetime adversity partially mediating these associations. Stronger effects were observed among Black participants. These findings suggest that neighborhood environments and cumulative stress may contribute to biological aging and racial disparities in aging trajectories.

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Educational Inequalities in Well-Being in Later Life in Germany: The Role of Health Behaviours and Health Literacy

Franzese, F.; Bergmann, M.; Burzynska, A.

2026-04-24 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351388 medRxiv
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Socioeconomic inequalities in health and well-being are a major public health concern, particularly in ageing populations. Education is a key determinant shaping multiple aspects of health outcomes. We used cross-sectional data from wave 9 of the German sample (n=4,148) of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to test whether formal education is associated with well-being in later adulthood, with health literacy, self-rated health, and preventive health behaviours as possible mediators. Our results showed that education was positively associated with greater well-being, but only via indirect pathways. Specifically, self-rated health, health literacy, and fruit and vegetable consumption mediated the relationship between education and well-being accounting for 54.7, 24.7, and 12.6 percent of the total effect, respectively. In addition, there were significant positive correlations between education and health literacy, as well as high-intensity physical activity, daily fruit and vegetable consumption, more preventive health check-ups, and less smoking. In contrast, alcohol consumption was more common among those with higher levels of education. All health behaviours and health literacy were correlated directly or indirectly (i.e., mediated by health) with well-being. These findings highlight the importance of examining indirect pathways linking education to well-being in later life. Interventions aimed at improving health literacy and promoting healthy behaviours may help reduce educational inequalities in quality of life among older adults.

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Menopause in the All of Us Research Program: A Descriptive Summary of Electronic Health Record and Survey Response across Sociodemographic Characteristics

Staples, J. W.; White, S. L.; Giacalone, A.; Pozdeyev, N.; Sammel, M. D.; Stranger, B. E.; Valencia, C. I.; Santoro, N.; Hendricks, A. E.

2026-04-25 sexual and reproductive health 10.64898/2026.04.17.26351129 medRxiv
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Objective. Menopause is a significant physiological transition with implications for health outcomes (e.g., cardiometabolic), yet gaps remain in understanding the menopause transition, including how menopause timing and type influence health outcomes. Large-scale cohort studies in midlife (age~40-60) females, including the All of Us Research Program (AoURP), provide opportunities to study menopause across diverse populations and data modalities. We characterized menopause-related data in AoURP, focusing on age distributions and concordance between EHR diagnosis codes and self-reported survey responses. Methods. We analyzed menopause-related survey, EHR diagnostic code, and genomic data among ~396,000 participants in AoURP with female sex. We summarized menopause data across modalities, overlap between survey, EHR, and genomic data, and age distributions overall and across sociodemographic characteristics. Results. Among ~396,000 females, surveys captured ~193,000 menopause observations, nearly seven times more than structured EHR diagnoses (~28,000), suggesting under- ascertainement in EHR data. Nearly all females (~99%) with an EHR menopause diagnosis also reported menopause in the survey. Approximately 22,000 participants had intersected EHR, survey, and genomic menopause-related data. Survey-based age patterns matched expectations, with participants <40 years predominantly reporting pre-menopausal status and those >60 years predominantly reporting post-menopausal status. A small subset (N{approx}1,700; 4%) (age>70 years) reported no menopause, suggesting response or recall bias. EHR menopause codes were concentrated after age>45 years, with a notable spike at age 65. Modest differences in survey-based menopause age distributions were observed by sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., race, ancestry). Conclusions. These findings inform sampling strategies, power calculations, phenotype definition, and study design for menopause research using AoURP.

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Violence exposure and mental health problems among school-aged children in a South African birth cohort

Bailey, M.; Hammerton, G.; Fairchild, G.; Tsunga, L.; Hoffman, N.; Burd, T.; Shadwell, R.; Danese, A.; Armour, C.; Zar, H. J.; Stein, D. J.; Donald, K. A.; Halligan, S. L.

2026-04-22 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351289 medRxiv
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ObjectiveThere is little longitudinal research investigating links between violence exposure and mental disorders among children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), despite high rates of violence. We examined cross-sectional and longitudinal violence-mental health associations among children in a large South African birth cohort, the Drakenstein Child Health Study, including direct clinical interviews capturing childrens mental disorders. MethodIn this birth cohort (N=974), we assessed lifetime violence exposure and four subtypes (witnessed community, community victimization, witnessed domestic, domestic victimization) at ages 4.5 and 8-years via caregiver reports. At 8-years, caregivers completed the Child Behaviour Checklist; and psychiatric disorders were assessed using the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview for Children and Adolescents, a self-report measure. We tested for associations using linear/logistic regressions, adjusted for confounders. ResultsMost children (91%) had experienced violence by 8-years. Cross-sectionally, total violence exposure was associated with total (B =0.49 [95% CI 0.32, 0.66]), internalizing (0.32 [0.17, 0.47]), and externalizing problems (0.46 [0.31, 0.61]), and with increased odds of disorder at 8 years (aOR=1.09 [1.05, 1.13]). Longitudinally, total violence exposure up to 4.5-years was associated with total (B=0.27 [0.03, 0.52]), internalizing (0.24 [0.04. 0.44]), and externalizing scores (0.23 [0.008, 0.45]) at 8-years, but not with increased risk of psychiatric disorders. The strongest and most consistent associations were observed for domestic versus community violence subtypes. ConclusionOur strong cross-sectional but weaker longitudinal findings suggest that recent violence exposures may be more critical than early exposures for childrens mental health. Longitudinal exploration of other violence-affected LMIC populations is urgently needed.

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On the robustness of ethnic and socio-cultural determinants of healthcare decision-making autonomy among Hausa, Fulani, and Kanuri women in Northern Nigeria.

OGUNETIMOJU, A. M.; AJEBORIOGBON, S. A.

2026-04-22 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351355 medRxiv
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BackgroundWomens autonomy in healthcare decision-making has become one of the most critical yet inequitably distributed determinants of health outcomes, gender equity, and sustainable development worldwide. In Northern Nigeria, the presence of ethnic and socio-cultural inequality is frequently concealed by the aggregated statistics of a region. MethodsThis cross-sectional secondary analysis utilized the 2024 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The sample included 9,998 married women (15-49 years) identifying as Hausa, Fulani, or Kanuri in Northern Nigeria. Healthcare autonomy was categorized as husband/partner alone, respondent alone, or joint decision-making. Analysis included weighted descriptive statistics, Rao-Scott adjusted chi-square tests for residential associations, and complex sample multinomial logistic regression to identify multivariable correlates while adjusting for sampling weights, strata, and clusters. ResultsMean age was 30.38 years. Most participants lacked formal education (69.6%) and resided in rural areas (72.0%). Husband-only decision-making predominated (72.6%), while 22.5% reported joint and 4.9% independent autonomy. Joint decision-making was significantly higher in urban (33.3%) than rural areas (18.3%; Adjusted F=50.892, p<0.001). In adjusted models (Reference: Kanuri), Hausa and Fulani women had substantially lower odds of joint decision-making relative to husband-only outcomes. Rural residence correlated with lower odds of both independent and joint agency. Notably, wealth status was not a significant predictor after adjustment (p > 0.05). ConclusionsEthnicity and residence are robust determinants of healthcare autonomy among women in Northern Nigeria, persisting regardless of education or wealth. This "socio-cultural paradox" suggests that economic interventions alone are insufficient. Policies must complement socioeconomic approaches with culturally responsive strategies addressing household power dynamics and entrenched social norms.

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Estimating direct and indirect genetic effects on variation in depressive symptoms in early adolescence: a trio PGS analysis in the MoBa cohort

Bazezew, M. M.; Glaser, B.; Hegemann, L. E.; Askelund, A. D.; Pingault, J.-B.; Wootton, R. E.; Davies, N. M.; Ask, H.; Havdahl, A.; Hannigan, L.

2026-04-25 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.17.26350751 medRxiv
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Background: Early adolescence is a common period of onset for depressive symptoms. In part, this may reflect a developmental manifestation of individual's genetic propensities as they undergo physiological and hormonal changes and interact with new environments. Many commonly proposed mechanisms assume direct effects of an individual's own genes on emerging variation in their depressive symptomatology. However, estimates of genetic influence based on analyses in unrelated individuals capture not only direct genetic effects but also genetic effects from parents and other biologically related family members. Aim: In data from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort (MoBa), we used linear mixed models to distinguish developmentally-stable and adolescence-specific direct and parental indirect genetic effects. We examined effects of polygenic scores for major depressive disorder (MDD), ADHD, anxiety disorders, and educational attainment (EA) on depressive symptoms, which were assessed by maternal reports at ages 8 and 14. Results: Children's own MDD polygenic scores showed adolescence-specific effects on depressive symptoms ( b_PGS*wave=0.041, [95% CI: 0.017, 0.065]). Developmentally-stable direct effects from children's polygenic scores for MDD (b=0.016, [0.006, 0.039]), ADHD (b=0.024, [0.008, 0.041]) and EA (b=-0.02, [ -0.038, -0.002]) were also evident. The only evidence of indirect genetic effects was a stable effect of maternal EA polygenic scores (b=0.04, [0.024, 0.054]). Conclusion: Direct genetic effects linked to genetic liability to MDD accounted for emerging variation in depressive symptoms in adolescence. These results imply that specific etiological mechanisms related to MDD may become particularly relevant for depressive symptoms during early adolescence compared to at earlier ages.

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Sociodemographic determinants of maternal health indicators in conflict-affected counties of Kenya: secondary analysis of data from the 2022 Kenya demographic and health survey

Wandji Djouonang, B.; Olungah, C. O.; Atsali, E.; Kihara, A.-B.; Omanwa, K.; Obimbo, M. M.; Ogengo, J.

2026-04-24 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351520 medRxiv
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Objective To analyse sociodemographic determinants of maternal health indicators in Kenyas conflict-affected regions. Methods A cross-sectional secondary analysis of the 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) was conducted. Conflict-affected counties were identified using ACLED (>25 fatalities). The sample included 1,060 women aged 15-49 years. Outcomes were adequate antenatal care (ANC 4+), facility delivery, and skilled birth attendance (SBA). Predictors included age, education, wealth, employment, residence, and county; intimate partner violence was adjusted for. Weighted descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and multivariable logistic regression were applied (p<0.05). Results Six counties met conflict criteria. While 90.2% of women attended at least one ANC visit, only 53.5% achieved ANC 4+. Facility delivery and SBA were 68.2% and 72.2%, respectively. Adolescents (15-19) were least likely to attain adequate ANC; women aged 20-24 had higher odds (aOR=1.83; 95% CI: 1.01-3.34). Education strongly predicted outcomes: higher education increased ANC 4+ (aOR=2.74; 95% CI: 1.19-6.34) and facility delivery (aOR=2.72; 95% CI: 1.15-6.47). Wealth showed strong gradients: middle quintile increased facility delivery (aOR=5.50; 95% CI: 2.14-14.14), while richer quintile increased SBA (aOR=11.04; 95% CI: 2.06-59.25). Rural residence reduced facility delivery (aOR=0.32) and SBA (aOR=0.22). County disparities persisted. IPV was not independently associated. Conclusion Maternal health indicators in conflict-affected Kenya follow a marked inequity gradient. Adolescents, rural residents, and socioeconomically disadvantaged women are most excluded. Strengthening adolescent ANC continuity, reducing rural access barriers, and investing in education and economic empowerment are critical for improving outcomes.

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Built environment characteristics and drowning mortality: A global satellite-based analysis of urbanisation, infrastructure, and water proximity

Essex, R.; Lim, S.; Jagnoor, J.

2026-04-21 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.19.26351236 medRxiv
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Drowning remains a major global public health challenge, yet how built environment characteristics shape population-level drowning risk remains poorly understood. This study linked satellite-derived built environment data to subnational drowning mortality estimates across 203 regions in 12 countries from 2006-2021. It found that built environment associations with drowning mortality are complex, non-linear, and shaped by development context. Urban extent was strongly protective, while built area near water showed protection overall but increased risk when combined with high population crowding. Almost all drowning mortality variance occurred between regions rather than within regions over time, indicating risk is predominantly determined by place-based characteristics. Income-stratified analyses revealed profound heterogeneity: crowding was protective in low-to middle-income settings but near-null in high-income regions, while waterfront development captured very different realities across contexts. These findings highlight the importance of tailoring drowning prevention strategies to local built environment configurations and development contexts.

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Global burden of stigma and discrimination against transgender and gender-diverse adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Barre-Quick, M.; Yeh, P. T.; Kennedy, C. E.; Azuma, H.; McLellan, C.; Cooney, E. E.

2026-04-23 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351490 medRxiv
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Abstract Importance Stigma and discrimination against transgender and gender-diverse people are prevalent across many settings and may contribute to substantial health disparities. Objective To synthesize global evidence on the prevalence of stigma, discrimination, and resilience among transgender (trans) and gender-diverse adults. Data Sources A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Central, LILACS, and PsycInfo for articles published between January 1, 2010 and January 2, 2023. This database search was supplemented by grey literature and secondary reference searches. Article Selection Studies were eligible if they presented primary quantitative data on prevalence of stigma, discrimination, and/or resilience among trans and gender-diverse adults (aged 18 and over), with no restrictions on study design, language, or geographic region. Data Extraction and Synthesis Two independent reviewers extracted data using standardized forms, with discrepancies resolved by consensus. The JBI Critical Appraisal Checklist for Prevalence Articles was used to assess risk of bias. Random effects meta-analysis was conducted for dichotomous prevalence measures using inverse variance weighting and logit transformation; non-dichotomous prevalence data were summarized descriptively. Main Outcomes and Measures Outcomes included prevalence estimates for various forms of stigma (anticipated, perceived, internalized, and experienced), discrimination in legal/institutional settings (housing, healthcare, employment, police/prison), and resilience. Results A total of 97 articles, with data from 72,158 unique trans and gender-diverse participants across 26 countries, met inclusion criteria. Studies showed moderate levels of anticipated stigma, perceived stigma, and internalized stigma. Meta-analyses of 36 studies provided pooled estimates of discrimination prevalence across multiple domains: 21.4% in housing (e.g., eviction, rental denial), 24.6% in healthcare (e.g., denial of care, mistreatment), 32.8% in employment (e.g., hiring bias, workplace harassment), and 39.1% in police/prison settings (e.g., profiling, mistreatment). High heterogeneity was observed across studies, reflecting regional and methodological differences. Resilience scores ranged from moderate to high, indicating variation within trans and gender-diverse communities. Conclusions and Relevance This systematic review and meta-analysis found that stigma and discrimination against trans and gender-diverse adults are pervasive globally. Variation in stigma and discrimination across settings and regions underscores the need for targeted interventions and policy reforms. Funding World Health Organization through a grant from the Elton John AIDS Foundation and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

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A rights-based intervention integrating social work and ophthalmic care for people experiencing or at risk of homelessness

Hassani, A.; Pecar, K.; Soliman, M.; Bunyon, P.; Ellinger, C.; Tulysewskid, G.; Croft, J.; Carillo, C.; Wewegama, G.; du Plessis-Schneider, S.; Estevez, J. J.

2026-04-24 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351525 medRxiv
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Background Individuals experiencing or at risk of homelessness face substantial barriers to preventive eye care that are poorly addressed by standard service models. Interdisciplinary optometry-social work collaboration offers a rights-based approach to improving engagement and continuity of care. Methods A convergent mixed-methods study was conducted between February and August 2024 at a multidisciplinary community centre. Clients experiencing or at risk of homelessness received integrated optometry and social work assessment and were prioritised as high, medium, or low based on combined clinical and social risk. Social work follow-up was guided by the Triple Mandate and W-Questions framework. Quantitative data were summarised using mean (SD), median [IQR], or n (%). Qualitative case notes were analysed using content analysis with inductive coding and secondary review for consistency. Results A total of 165 clients had priority categories coded (high: 68; medium: 47; low: 154). Demographic data were available for 132 clients (60% male; mean age 49.5 years [SD 16]); 27% had not completed high school, 89% reported weekly income below AUD 1000, and 28% had vision impairment. Two hundred forty-five case-note entries were consolidated into 146 unique records. SMS (46%) and phone calls (38%) were the most documented contact methods, although only 21% of calls were answered; missed calls (13%) and disconnected numbers (7%) were common. Multi-modal contact was more frequently documented for higher-priority clients. Appointment assistance was the most recorded facilitator (71%), while rights-based supports, including interpreter and transport assistance, were infrequently documented (<=5%). Qualitative analysis identified unstable communication, reliance on informal supports, and service fragmentation as key influences on recall outcomes. Conclusion This study supports an interdisciplinary, rights-based optometry-social work model to address barriers to preventive eye care among people experiencing or at risk of homelessness. Embedding structured handovers and tiered recall processes within community-based services may strengthen continuity and accountability for high-priority clients. Future implementation should evaluate outcomes related to equity of reach, service integration, and sustained engagement in care.

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Predicting Depressive Symptoms Among Reproductive-Aged Women in Bangladesh Using Bagging Ensemble Machine Learning on Imbalanced Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2022 Data

Mahmud, S.; Akter, M. S.; Ahamed, B.; Rahman, A. E.; El Arifeen, S.; Hossain, A. T.

2026-04-23 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351445 medRxiv
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Background Depressive symptoms among reproductive-aged women represent a major public health concern in low- and middle-income countries, yet systematic screening remains limited. In most population survey datasets, the low prevalence of depression results in severe class imbalance, which challenges conventional machine learning models. Therefore, we develop and evaluate a bagging-based ensemble machine learning framework to predict depressive symptoms among reproductive-aged women using highly imbalanced Bangladesh demographic and health survey (BDHS) 2022 data. Methods The sample comprised women aged 15-49 years drawn from BDHS 2022 data. Depressive symptoms were defined using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9 [&ge;]10). Candidate predictors were drawn from sociodemographic, reproductive, nutritional, psychosocial, healthcare access, and environmental domains. Feature selection was performed using Elastic Net (EN), Random Forest (RF), and XGBoost model. Five classifiers (EN, RF, Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM)) were trained using both oversampling-based approaches and the proposed ensemble framework. Model performance was evaluated on an independent test set using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F1-score, and the normalized Matthews correlation coefficient (normMCC). Results Approximately 4.8% of women were identified with depressive symptoms. The proposed bagging ensemble framework consistently achieved more balanced predictive performance than oversampling-based models. Average normMCC improved from 0.540 (oversampling) to 0.557 (ensemble). RF and GBM ensembles demonstrated notable improvements in identifying depressive cases, while the EN ensemble achieved the highest overall performance and sensitivity. Threshold optimization yielded stable normMCC across models, indicating robust trade-offs between sensitivity and specificity. Conclusions Bagging-based ensemble learning provides a more robust and balanced approach than synthetic oversampling for predicting depressive symptoms in highly imbalanced population survey data. This approach has important implications for improving early identification and population-level mental health surveillance in resource-constrained settings.

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Temporal features of the built environment and associations with drowning mortality: A global satellite-based analysis

Essex, R.; Lim, S.; Jagnoor, J.

2026-04-21 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.19.26351237 medRxiv
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BackgroundDrowning remains a major global public health challenge. This study examined whether the timing and trajectories of urbanisation--beyond the current built environment--are associated with subnational drowning mortality. MethodsWe linked satellite-derived measures of built-environment change (GHSL), population crowding (WorldPop), surface water exposure (JRC Global Surface Water), and infrastructure proxies (VIIRS/DMSP nighttime lights) to GBD 2021 drowning mortality estimates across 203 ADM1 regions in 12 countries (2006-2021; 3,248 region-year observations). Temporal predictors captured recent expansion, development "newness" ([&le;]10-year built share), acceleration/volatility, and a crowdingxgrowth interaction. We screened predictors using LASSO (10-fold cross-validation) and fitted mixed-effects models with region random intercepts. Distributed-lag models tested temporal precedence and development age, and income-stratified models assessed heterogeneity. ResultsAdding temporal predictors improved fit beyond contemporaneous built-environment measures ({Delta}AIC=177; {Delta}BIC=147). In adjusted models, crowdingxgrowth was strongly positively associated with drowning mortality, and a higher share of recent development was associated with higher mortality. Lag models showed a development age gradient: older built environment was most protective. Associations differed by income group, with several key coefficients reversing sign across strata. DiscussionDrowning mortality appears shaped by development histories as well as present-day conditions, with risk concentrated in rapidly changing, dense settings and the newest built environments. Cross-context heterogeneity suggests mechanisms and prevention priorities are unlikely to be uniform. ConclusionsDevelopment timing and trajectories help explain subnational drowning mortality beyond current built form alone. Prevention and planning should prioritise transition-period safety strategies in newly developing and rapidly densifying areas.

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Menopausal hormone therapy at age 45 to 60 years old, future dementia or cognitive decline: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Law, S. Y. R.; Mukadam, N.; Pourhadi, N.; Chaudry, A.; Shiakalli, A.; Rai, U.; Livingston, G.

2026-04-22 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351058 medRxiv
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ObjectiveTo examine whether menopausal women who initiate systemic menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) around menopause (45-60 years old) have a different risk of developing dementia than those not taking MHT. DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and longitudinal observational studies. Risk of bias was assessed using ROB-2 and ROBINS I-V2. Data sourcesMEDLINE, Web of Science, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library to 27 March 2026. Eligibility criteria for selecting studiesStudies which measured dementia or cognitive decline in women who initiated systemic MHT between ages 45-60 or within 5 years of menopause, compared with placebo or no MHT. Authors contacted for additional details if needed. Main outcome measuresDementia, Alzheimers disease (AD), cognitive decline. Results10 studies totalling 213,678 participants (189,525 in studies with the primary population). There was no significant increased risk in women with a uterus for all cause dementia (pooled hazard ratio (HR): 1.12; 95% CI 0.91-1.31, N=78,613, I2 = 96.9%), but increased AD risk (HR: 1.14; 95% CI 1.02, 1.29, N=134,865, I2 = 35.6%). Results were similar in sensitivity analyses including women with or without a uterus. Results for cognitive decline were variable. ConclusionsMHT initiated around the age of menopause should not be prescribed for cognition or dementia prevention. It is not protective against dementia and may increase risk slightly. The magnitude of risk was similar in AD and dementia, but the latter with larger confidence intervals. Studies which followed up individuals rather than on health records lost people to follow up. This may account for difference in cognitive decline outcomes between studies, as people with cognitive impairment and dementia are more likely not to attend. MHT prescribing should balance benefits against risks, including evidence of a small increased dementia risk. There are few high-quality studies, so further research would inform recommendations. Systematic review registration Prospero CRD420251010663 What is already known on this topic?O_LIMenopausal hormone therapy (MHT) is effective for alleviating vasomotor symptoms. Contemporary guidelines recommend treatment should be initiated for such symptoms under age 60 and or within 10 years of menopause onset. C_LIO_LIA large randomised trial on the topic found increased risk of dementia in women initiating MHT after the age of 65. C_LIO_LIIt is unknown whether initiating MHT around the age of menopause impacts the risk of dementia or cognitive decline. C_LI What this study addsO_LIThere was no evidence that taking MHT around the time of menopause decreases the risk of dementia or cognitive impairment. C_LIO_LIThey should not be prescribed for these indications. C_LIO_LIWe were able to find more studies which examine this question by contacting authors for additional data. C_LIO_LIInitiating MHT in women with a uterus around the age of menopause increased the risk of Alzheimers disease slightly, by over 10%, and there is a similar but not significant effect in the fewer studies of all cause dementia. Women with or without a uterus show similar results. C_LIO_LIWe found no significant difference shown in cognitive decline, possibly due to loss to follow up. This may be because most studies of cognitive decline follow up C_LI

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Assessing the efficacy of behaviourally informed invitation messaging in increasing attendance at the NHS Targeted Lung Health Check: A randomised experimental study

Tan, X.; Danka, M. N.; Urbanski, S.; Kitsawat, P.; McElvaney, T. J.; Jundi, S.; Porter, L.; Gericke, C.

2026-04-24 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.12.26350693 medRxiv
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Background: Lung cancer screening can reduce lung cancer mortality through early detection, but uptake of the NHS Targeted Lung Health Check (TLHC) programme remains low. Behaviourally informed invitation messages have been proposed as a low-cost approach to increase attendance, but evidence of their effectiveness in lung cancer screening is mixed. Few intervention studies used evidence-based behaviour change frameworks, and rarely tailored invitation strategies to empirically identified barriers and enablers. Methods: In an online experiment, 3,274 adults aged 55-74 years and with a history of smoking were randomised to see one of four behaviourally informed invitation messages or a control message. Participants then rated their intention to attend a TLHC appointment, and selected barriers and enablers to attending from a pre-defined list, which were classified according to the Theoretical Domains Framework. Invitation messages were mapped to Behaviour Change Techniques using the Theory and Techniques Tool. Message conditions were compared on intention to attend TLHC using bootstrapped ANOVA followed by pairwise comparisons. Exploratory counterfactual mediation analyses examined the role of fear in intention to attend. Results: Behaviourally informed invitation messages did not meaningfully increase intention to attend TLHC compared with the control message. While a GP-endorsed message showed a small potential benefit relative to the other conditions, this finding was not robust after adjustment for multiple comparisons. Participants most frequently reported barriers related to Emotion (particularly fear), Social Influence, and Knowledge, while Beliefs about Consequences emerged as the primary enabler of attendance. Only around half of reported barriers and enablers were addressed by the invitation messages. Exploratory analyses found that fear was associated with lower intention to attend a TLHC appointment, yet none of the behaviourally informed messages appeared to reduce fear compared to the control message. Conclusions: Improving lung cancer screening uptake will likely require invitation messages that directly address emotional concerns, particularly fear, alongside credible recommendations. These findings highlight the importance of systematically aligning invitation message content with empirically identified behavioural influences when designing scalable interventions to improve lung cancer screening uptake.

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Association of sexual orientation outness and recent homophobic violence with not being on antiretroviral treatment: Analysis of a Latin American Survey in men who have sex with men living with HIV

ENCISO DURAND, J. C.; Silva-Santisteban, A. A.; Reyes-Diaz, M.; Huicho, L.; Caceres, C. F.; LAMIS-2018,

2026-04-23 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351515 medRxiv
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Objectives: In Latin America, up-to-date information to monitor UNAIDS 95-95-95 HIV targets in key populations, such as men who have sex with men, is limited. Elsewhere, structural homophobia restricts access to ART. Conceptual frameworks suggest that intersecting forms of violence and discrimination may negatively influence HIV care outcomes through psychosocial and structural pathways, although empirical evidence remains limited. The study aimed to assess whether sexual orientation outness and recent homophobic violence are associated with not being on ART among Latin American MSM living with HIV. Methods: This cross-sectional study is a secondary analysis of data from LAMIS-2018, including 7,609 MSM aged 18+ with an HIV diagnosis [&ge;]1 year prior from 18 Latin American countries. Participants self-reported ART status, sociodemographic characteristics, homophobic violence, and sexual orientation outness. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions identified those factors associated with not being on ART. Results: Nine percent of MSM with HIV were not on ART, 18% reported low sexual orientation outness, and 27% experienced homophobic violence, especially in Andean and Central American countries. Not being on ART was associated with recent homophobic violence (aPR=1.25), low outness (aPR=1.22), unemployment (aPR=1.27), and residence in the Andean subregion (aPR=1.87), Mexico (aPR=1.28), or the Southern Cone (aPR=1.45) versus Brazil. Protective factors included being older (25-39: aPR=0.72; >39: aPR=0.49), living in large cities (aPR=0.72), having a stable partner (aPR=0.78), and university education (aPR=0.74). Conclusions: Recent homophobic violence and low sexual orientation outness were associated with not being on ART among MSM in Latin America. While access varies across countries, structural factors such as stigma and violence may limit engagement in care. Addressing these barriers alongside strengthening health systems may be key to improving ART uptake and advancing progress toward the 95-95-95 targets.

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Pharmacist Led Nutritional Counselling as a Community Intervention for Obesity, Undernutrition, and Anaemia: Evidence from a 1135 Participant Prospective Interventional Study in India

Duddu, R.

2026-04-27 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.25.26351725 medRxiv
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Objectives: To examine the pattern, magnitude, and demographic distribution of measurable improvements across five outcome parameters following three monthly pharmacist-led nutritional counselling sessions delivered to community-dwelling participants in semi-urban India. Design: Secondary analysis of interventional follow-up data from a prospective community-based study. Setting: Schools and colleges in Narasaraopeta, Andhra Pradesh, India, from September 2021 to March 2022. Participants: Of 1,200 participants assessed at baseline, 1,135 (94.6%) completed at least one counselling session and formed the analysis cohort. The age range was 10 to 60 years. The majority of participants, 92.4%, were aged between 11 and 20 years. All 1,135 were anaemic at baseline. Interventions: Three structured monthly counselling sessions were delivered by pharmacy students under qualified faculty pharmacist supervision. Each session included individualised dietary guidance, lifestyle modification advice, and culturally adapted written health education materials. Primary and secondary outcome measures: Cumulative proportion of participants achieving measurable improvement in body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), waist to hip ratio (WHR), and haemoglobin (Hb) concentration at each session, stratified by age group and sex. Results: All five parameters showed progressive cumulative improvement across sessions. By session three, 44 participants (3.6%) showed improved BMI, 39 (3.25%) achieved reduced WC, 34 (2.8%) reduced HC, 33 (2.75%) improved WHR, and 115 (9.5%) demonstrated improved Hb. Adolescents aged 11 to 20 years were consistently the most responsive subgroup. Haemoglobin showed the steepest improvement trajectory, rising from 1.75% at session one to 9.5% at session three, representing a 5.4 fold increase achieved through dietary counselling alone without pharmacological supplementation. Conclusions: Three monthly pharmacist led nutritional counselling sessions produce measurable and progressive improvements in both anthropometric and haematological outcomes in community settings. Adolescents are the most responsive population. These findings support the integration of pharmacists into community non communicable disease prevention programmes in India and provide a replicable low resource model applicable to comparable global settings.

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The Mediterranean Diet is Associated with Higher Arterial Elasticity over Prefrontal Cortex in Older Adults

Simpson, F. M.; Johnson, J.; Kalamala, P.; Fabiani, M.; Murphy, K.; Wade, A.; Harvey, A.; Ware, N.; Hunter, M.; Mellow, M. L.; Barker, D.; Collins, C.; Low, K.; Gratton, G.; Keage, H.; Smith, A. E.; Karayanidis, F.

2026-04-22 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351341 medRxiv
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INTRODUCTIONHealthful dietary patterns may attenuate dementia risk by preserving cerebrovascular health. Prior work has focused on systemic arterial stiffness, but cerebrovascular measures may be more sensitive to neuroprotective effects of diet. We examined associations between Mediterranean diet adherence, prefrontal cortex (PFC) arterial elasticity, and cognition in older adults. METHODSParticipants were 198 older adults (58% female; mean age 65.6 years) from the Newcastle ACTIVate cohort. Mediterranean Diet (MedDiet) scores were derived from the Australian Eating Survey food frequency questionnaire. Pulse Relaxation Function (PReFx), an index of PFC arterial elasticity, was measured using pulse Diffuse Optical Tomography. Cognition was assessed with CANTAB and a cued task-switching paradigm. RESULTSHigher MedDiet was associated with higher PFC arterial elasticity. MedDiet was not associated with cognition, and PReFx did not mediate diet-cognition associations. DISCUSSIONGreater Mediterranean diet alignment was cross-sectionally associated with PFC arterial elasticity, suggesting a pathway through which diet may influence brain health in ageing.

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Drivers and barriers to the implementation of the school feeding values-based food procurement guidelines and ultra-processed food restrictions

Fernandes Davies, V.; Perrut, I.; Thow, A.-M.; Duran, A. C.

2026-04-24 health policy 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351508 medRxiv
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Objective: To investigate in the National School Feeding Program (PNAE) the local level drivers and barriers to the implementation of four guidelines: the banning of sugary drinks; restrictions on the procurement of processed and ultra-processed foods; the mandatory increase in weekly servings of fruits and vegetables offered to students; and mandatory direct procurement from family farmers. Design: Qualitative study that used semi-structured interviews. Street level bureaucracy theory informed the theoretical framework and thematic analysis. Setting: Brazilian municipalities, across the country five geographic regions (North, Northeast, Southeast, South, and Midwest). Participants: Stakeholders (e.g. nutritionists, school cooks, and food procurement managers) involved in the local implementation of the PNAE program across the country. Results: Ninety stakeholders were interviewed. Stakeholders reported having autonomy to perform their activities, collaboration and support from other members within the local government and food providers, adequate infrastructure such as a well-equipped kitchens, the availability of trained personnel, and political commitment as drivers for optimum program implementation. Reported barriers included lack of support and resistance to change among cooks, teachers and parents; insufficient physical and human resources; and limited political commitment. When barriers outweighed drivers, interviewees reported adapting their practices, often in restrictive ways that could compromise the implementation of the program. Conclusions: Drivers and barriers to local PNAE implementation were generally similar across studied municipalities, although their magnitude varied. In contexts of greater economic vulnerability and fiscal constraint, additional support and targeted actions from the federal government may be required to strengthen local implementation

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Factors influencing repeated decisions to decline cervical cancer screening among women living with HIV in Jos, Nigeria: a qualitative study

Abubakar, A.; Inuwa, S. M.; Ali, M. J.; Abdullahi, K. M.; Doe, A.; Ngaybe, M. G. B.; Madhivanan, P.; Musa, J.

2026-04-23 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351475 medRxiv
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Women living with HIV face about a six-fold higher risk of cervical cancer, yet screening uptake remains low in many sub-Saharan African settings. We explored factors influencing repeated decisions to decline cervical cancer screening during routine HIV care among women living with HIV at a large HIV clinic in Jos, Nigeria. Between September and December 2024, we conducted an exploratory qualitative study at the AIDS Prevention Initiative in Nigeria Clinic in Jos, Nigeria. We purposively recruited 27 women living with HIV aged 21 to 65 years who had never undergone cervical cancer screening and had repeatedly declined screening offers during routine HIV care, including at the current clinic visit. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted in English or Hausa, audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and translated into English where needed. Data were analyzed thematically using theory-informed coding based on the Health Belief Model and Social Ecological Model. Among 27 women living with HIV who had repeatedly declined screening, perceived susceptibility was often low or uncertain despite recognition of cervical cancer severity. Perceived benefits were acknowledged but were frequently outweighed by overlapping barriers, including knowledge gaps and misinformation, indirect and downstream costs, emotional barriers, logistical constraints, clinic-flow and service-delivery barriers, and anticipated stigma. Education, reminders, and supportive clinic processes acted as cues to action, and most participants expressed willingness to screen in future. Among women living with HIV at this clinic who repeatedly declined screening when it was offered, perceived benefits were often outweighed by multilevel barriers. Screening programs may integrate fear-reduction and stigma-sensitive counseling with practical service delivery improvements, including shorter waiting times, reduced indirect costs, predictable and streamlined clinic flow, and consistent provider invitations and reminders, while addressing misinformation through community-embedded, culturally tailored messaging. These strategies may improve screening uptake and support more equitable cervical cancer prevention for women living with HIV in similar HIV-care settings.